numerical prediction - definition. What is numerical prediction
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%ما هو (من)٪ 1 - تعريف

USES MATHEMATICAL MODELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND OCEANS TO PREDICT THE WEATHER BASED ON CURRENT WEATHER CONDITIONS
Numerical Weather Prediction; Weather model; Weather models; Numerical weather forecasting; Weather simulation; Weather modelling; Numerical weather models; Numerical weather model; Applications of numerical weather prediction
  • alt=A grid for a numerical weather model is shown. The grid divides the surface of the Earth along meridians and parallels, and simulates the thickness of the atmosphere by stacking grid cells away from the Earth's center. An inset shows the different physical processes analyzed in each grid cell, such as advection, precipitation, solar radiation, and terrestrial radiative cooling.
  • alt=A prognostic chart of the North American continent provides geopotential heights, temperatures, and wind velocities at regular intervals. The values are taken at the altitude corresponding to the 850-millibar pressure surface.
  • Field of [[cumulus cloud]]s, which are parameterized since they are too small to be explicitly included within numerical weather prediction
  • alt=A [[WP-3D Orion]] weather reconnaissance aircraft in flight.
  • alt=A wind and wave forecast for the North Atlantic Ocean. Two areas of high waves are identified: One west of the southern tip of Greenland, and the other in the North Sea. Calm seas are forecast for the Gulf of Mexico. Wind barbs show the expected wind strengths and directions at regularly spaced intervals over the North Atlantic.
  • A simple wildfire propagation model
  • alt=A sigma coordinate system is shown. The lines of equal sigma values follow the terrain at the bottom, and gradually smoothen towards the top of the atmosphere.
  • Frances Bilas]]
  • alt=Two images are shown. The top image provides three potential tracks that could have been taken by Hurricane Rita. Contours over the coast of Texas correspond to the sea-level air pressure predicted as the storm passed. The bottom image shows an ensemble of track forecasts produced by different weather models for the same hurricane.

Numerical weather prediction         
Numerical weather prediction (NWP) uses mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans to predict the weather based on current weather conditions. Though first attempted in the 1920s, it was not until the advent of computer simulation in the 1950s that numerical weather predictions produced realistic results.
numerical analysis         
STUDY OF ALGORITHMS THAT USE NUMERICAL APPROXIMATION FOR THE PROBLEMS OF MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS
Numerical Analysis; Numerical solution; Numerical methods; Numerical approximation; Numerically; Numerical computation; Numberic; Numerical mathematics; Numerical calculus; Numeric analysis; Numerical algorithm; Numeric method; Numeral analysis; Numerical software; Numerical programming; Numerical evaluation; Numerical calculation; Numeric computation; Numerical computing; Numerical analysis software; Numerical analyst; History of numerical analysis; Numeric algorithm
¦ noun the branch of mathematics concerned with the development and use of numerical methods for solving problems.
numerically         
STUDY OF ALGORITHMS THAT USE NUMERICAL APPROXIMATION FOR THE PROBLEMS OF MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS
Numerical Analysis; Numerical solution; Numerical methods; Numerical approximation; Numerically; Numerical computation; Numberic; Numerical mathematics; Numerical calculus; Numeric analysis; Numerical algorithm; Numeric method; Numeral analysis; Numerical software; Numerical programming; Numerical evaluation; Numerical calculation; Numeric computation; Numerical computing; Numerical analysis software; Numerical analyst; History of numerical analysis; Numeric algorithm

ويكيبيديا

Numerical weather prediction

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) uses mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans to predict the weather based on current weather conditions. Though first attempted in the 1920s, it was not until the advent of computer simulation in the 1950s that numerical weather predictions produced realistic results. A number of global and regional forecast models are run in different countries worldwide, using current weather observations relayed from radiosondes, weather satellites and other observing systems as inputs.

Mathematical models based on the same physical principles can be used to generate either short-term weather forecasts or longer-term climate predictions; the latter are widely applied for understanding and projecting climate change. The improvements made to regional models have allowed for significant improvements in tropical cyclone track and air quality forecasts; however, atmospheric models perform poorly at handling processes that occur in a relatively constricted area, such as wildfires.

Manipulating the vast datasets and performing the complex calculations necessary to modern numerical weather prediction requires some of the most powerful supercomputers in the world. Even with the increasing power of supercomputers, the forecast skill of numerical weather models extends to only about six days. Factors affecting the accuracy of numerical predictions include the density and quality of observations used as input to the forecasts, along with deficiencies in the numerical models themselves. Post-processing techniques such as model output statistics (MOS) have been developed to improve the handling of errors in numerical predictions.

A more fundamental problem lies in the chaotic nature of the partial differential equations that govern the atmosphere. It is impossible to solve these equations exactly, and small errors grow with time (doubling about every five days). Present understanding is that this chaotic behavior limits accurate forecasts to about 14 days even with accurate input data and a flawless model. In addition, the partial differential equations used in the model need to be supplemented with parameterizations for solar radiation, moist processes (clouds and precipitation), heat exchange, soil, vegetation, surface water, and the effects of terrain. In an effort to quantify the large amount of inherent uncertainty remaining in numerical predictions, ensemble forecasts have been used since the 1990s to help gauge the confidence in the forecast, and to obtain useful results farther into the future than otherwise possible. This approach analyzes multiple forecasts created with an individual forecast model or multiple models.